OWAGMI8 · Curio

WAGMI Cohort 8

T3Under studyS −0.42

Reference net asset value

88.20usd

Calibrated launch value from the rulebook. This basket carries no order panel today.

Family

Curio

Risk profile

Aggressive

Holdings

Weighting

Liquidity adjusted

Rebalance

Weekly

Sharpe grade

−0.42

The thesis

Why this basket exists

What the construction is trying to capture, who it is built for, and how it is meant to be sized inside a wider allocation.

Eight tokens whose holders identify culturally with the asset. DOGE, SHIB and PEPE lead on adoption; BONK, WIF and FLOKI on conviction. A meme-majors basket framed around community more than market cap. Not a serious sleeve, a cultural one.

Curio family · Aggressive risk tier
Rule-based, divisor-method NAV

No committee note is published for this basket yet, so the catalogue description above stands in until one is written.

How it is meant to be used

Built forTactical sleeves only. Position size proportional to conviction.

Typical sizing1 to 5% of a crypto sleeve, tactical

Weighting ruleLiquidity adjusted

Risk tierAggressive

Composition

8 holdings, drawn to scale

Each tile's area is its weight in the basket, so the picture and the table below it are the same data read two ways.

Weight by area

8 holdings

Largest holding

DOGE 24.0%

The single name that moves net asset value most.

Top three

60.0%

Share of the basket held by its three largest names.

Effective holdings

6.28

Equal weight equivalent of 8 named positions.

Published weights

largest first

Published weights for all 8 holdings, largest first.
Holding	Traded as	Weight
01DOGE	DOGE	24%
02SHIB	SHIB	20%
03PEPE	PEPE	16%
04BONK	BONK	12%
05WIF	WIF	10%
06FLOKI	FLOKI	8%
07TURBO	TURBO	6%
08NEIRO	NEIRO	4%
Total		100%

Holdings

Why each name earned its seat

Research notes per constituent: the case for the asset, the regime that suits it, and the risk the seat carries.

DOGE24%Growth
Research note pending for this holding. Its weight and its role in the mandate are published above.
SHIB20%Growth
Research note pending for this holding. Its weight and its role in the mandate are published above.
PEPE16%Growth
Research note pending for this holding. Its weight and its role in the mandate are published above.
BONK12%Growth
Research note pending for this holding. Its weight and its role in the mandate are published above.
WIF10%Growth
Research note pending for this holding. Its weight and its role in the mandate are published above.

Show the remaining 3 holdings

FLOKI8%Growth
Research note pending for this holding. Its weight and its role in the mandate are published above.
TURBO6%Growth
Research note pending for this holding. Its weight and its role in the mandate are published above.
NEIRO4%Growth
Research note pending for this holding. Its weight and its role in the mandate are published above.

The record

What the numbers say

Simulated on historical constituent prices. A Sharpe is only published once the measured window clears 90 days, and drawdowns keep their sign.

Backtested record

911 day window

Sharpe grade

−0.42Simulated

Measured over 911 days against a bitcoin reference of 0.21.

Total return

−63.4%

Across the full window, simulated.

Max drawdown

−89.0%

Deepest peak to trough. 616 days to recover.

Annualised volatility

79.5%

Standard deviation of daily returns, annualised.

Beta vs bitcoin

1.59

Correlation 0.78.

Effective holdings

6.28

Of 8 named. Equal weight equivalent, from the published weights.

Simulated rebalance

Quarterly

Backtest assumption, not a published cadence.

Jensen alpha

−36.4%

Excess over what beta to bitcoin alone explains.

R squared

0.60

Share of the basket's moves bitcoin explains.

Bitcoin reference · Sharpe 0.21 · max drawdown −76.6%

OCBE100 reference · Sharpe 0.34 · max drawdown −61.1%

Every figure above is simulated on historical constituent prices for a basket that has not traded. It describes how the rules would have behaved, not how they will behave. OWAGMI8 is part of a public preview.

Loss tail

95% VaR · loss tailhistorical

1-week · 7d−19%

1-month · 30d−37%

Max expected loss over the horizon · 95% confidence · historical distribution. There is a 5% chance the actual loss is larger.

Across timeframes

vs bitcoin

Simulated return for this basket over five windows, with a Sharpe and a comparison with bitcoin wherever the window is long enough to publish one.
Window	Return	Sharpe	vs BTC
Full window	−50.6%	−0.39	−0.87
1 year	−67.6%	−1.00	−0.20
6 months	−2.6%	−0.10	−1.57
3 months	−5.7%	−0.38	−1.48
1 month	+27.4%	Not graded	·

Returns are simulated over each window. A Sharpe is published only once that window clears 90 days, so the shorter rows read Not graded and carry no comparison with bitcoin. Short windows flatter and punish at random; read the full window first and treat the rest as texture.

Risk

What could go wrong

Priced off this basket's own weights rather than off a generic disclaimer, so every figure below can be checked against the table above.

Highly volatile. Expect 50% or deeper drawdowns. Position size proportional to conviction; this is a tactical sleeve, not a buy-and-hold position.

Structural flags

5 on this basket

Top-name weightLow
DOGE is the largest position at 24%. Capped by methodology but still drives index direction.
Editorial sleeveHigh
Curio family. Lab-corner index: preview only, not sized for institutional mandates.
Elevated volatilityMedium
Backtest annualised vol 79%. See the backtest panel above for the full risk numbers.
Deep historical drawdownHigh
Max drawdown reached −89% in the backtest window. Size accordingly.
Pre-live statusLow
Preview index. NAV is computed but the basket isn't yet open for live allocation.

If it goes wrong

effect on net asset value

4 downside scenarios for this basket, and the loss each one would put on net asset value.
Scenario	Loss on net asset value
DOGE loses half its valueLargest holding, 24.0% of the basket	−12.0%Mechanical
The three largest holdings fall 30%DOGE, SHIB, PEPE · 60.0% of the basket together	−18.0%Mechanical
The deepest simulated fall repeatsRecorded once in the window, 616 days to recover	−89.0%Recorded
A bad month, one in twenty95% historical value at risk over 30 days	−37.0%Measured

The mechanical rows hold every other holding still, which is the optimistic case. This basket measured 0.78 correlation to bitcoin over its window, so its holdings tend to fall together rather than one at a time. Read the figures as a floor on the damage, never a ceiling.

The research behind the construction

Research

Methodology

Construction rules, weighting and rebalance cadence.

Research

Stress tests

Drawdown behaviour through the 2022, 2023 and 2024 cycles.

Research

Versus bitcoin

How multi asset construction compares with a single asset hold.

Worth a second look later

OWAGMI8 is under methodology review, so it carries no buy action today. The weights and the cadence are still being settled, and an order panel over rules that are about to move would put a commitment on the page the research has not earned. Everything above stays visible and updates with the study, so you can follow the work as it lands.

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