Tokenized Commodities 5
Calibrated launch value from the rulebook. This basket carries no order panel today.
Why this basket exists
What the construction is trying to capture, who it is built for, and how it is meant to be sized inside a wider allocation.
Five tokens with direct or indirect commodity exposure. PAXG and XAUT for physical gold provide about 63% of the basket. ONDO and CFG add RWA infrastructure beta, POLYX rounds out the security-token rails. A hybrid commodity-plus-infrastructure construction.
- RWA family · Conservative risk tier
- Rule-based, divisor-method NAV
No committee note is published for this basket yet, so the catalogue description above stands in until one is written.
5 holdings, drawn to scale
Each tile's area is its weight in the basket, so the picture and the table below it are the same data read two ways.
| Holding | Share | Weight | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01PAXG | 35% | ||
| 02XAUT | 28% | ||
| 03ONDO | 18% | ||
| 04CFG | 12% | ||
| 05POLYX | 7% | ||
| Total | 100% |
Why each name earned its seat
Research notes per constituent: the case for the asset, the regime that suits it, and the risk the seat carries.
- PAXG35%Hedge
PAX Gold is the largest tokenized physical gold asset on-chain. The cleanest macro-hedge expression in an on-chain portfolio.
Performs in flight-to-quality, stagflation, and dollar-weakness regimes. Underperforms in pro-risk crypto cycles.
custody concentration - XAUT28%Hedge
Tether Gold is the second-largest tokenized physical gold asset. Pairing with PAXG reduces single-issuer concentration in the on-chain gold sleeve.
Tracks PAXG closely. The marginal correlation difference is operational rather than market-driven.
issuer concentrationTether disclosure - ONDO18%Yield
Ondo Finance is among the largest tokenized treasury issuers and a category-defining brand in the RWA stack.
Performs in RWA-narrative phases and high-rate regimes. Underperforms in pure-crypto altcoin cycles and if rate cuts compress treasury yields.
regulatory uncertaintyrate-cycle sensitivity - CFG12%Yield
Centrifuge tokenizes private credit and trade finance on-chain. The cleanest pure-play on tokenized credit at scale.
Performs in credit-spread-widening regimes. Underperforms when capital prefers larger-cap RWA exposure.
lower liquiditycredit-default exposure - POLYX7%Infrastructure
Polymesh is the regulated security-token L1 with identity, accreditation, and transfer restrictions native to the protocol.
Performs in regulated-issuance phases. Sensitive to regulatory clarity around security tokens.
thin liquidityregulation dependence
What the numbers say
Simulated on historical constituent prices. A Sharpe is only published once the measured window clears 90 days, and drawdowns keep their sign.
Every figure above is simulated on historical constituent prices for a basket that has not traded. It describes how the rules would have behaved, not how they will behave. OTC5 is part of a public preview.
Max expected loss over the horizon · 95% confidence · historical distribution. There is a 5% chance the actual loss is larger.
| Window | Return | Sharpe | vs BTC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full window | +7.8% | 0.57 | −0.78 |
| 1 year | +7.8% | 0.57 | −0.78 |
| 6 months | +7.8% | 0.57 | −0.78 |
| 3 months | −8.8% | −1.05 | −2.14 |
| 1 month | +3.7% | Not graded | · |
Returns are simulated over each window. A Sharpe is published only once that window clears 90 days, so the shorter rows read Not graded and carry no comparison with bitcoin. Short windows flatter and punish at random; read the full window first and treat the rest as texture.
What could go wrong
Priced off this basket's own weights rather than off a generic disclaimer, so every figure below can be checked against the table above.
Drawdowns are bounded relative to the broader crypto market. Constituent caps and liquidity filters contain concentration risk. Full risk parameters live in the methodology rulebook.
- Single-name concentrationMedium
PAXG carries 35% of the basket. A drawdown in this single name materially moves NAV.
- Short price historyMedium
ONDO have under a year of usable history. Backtest metrics carry wider error bars.
- Pre-live statusLow
Second Wave index. NAV is computed but the basket isn't yet open for live allocation.
| Scenario | Loss on net asset value |
|---|---|
| PAXG loses half its valueLargest holding, 35.0% of the basket | −17.5%Mechanical |
| The three largest holdings fall 30%PAXG, XAUT, ONDO · 81.0% of the basket together | −24.3%Mechanical |
| The deepest simulated fall repeatsRecorded once in the window, 66 days to recover | −24.7%Recorded |
The mechanical rows hold every other holding still, which is the optimistic case. This basket measured 0.58 correlation to bitcoin over its window: the holdings often move together, though less tightly than a broad crypto basket. Read the figures as a floor on the damage, never a ceiling.
The research behind the construction
Worth a second look later
OTC5 is under methodology review, so it carries no buy action today. The weights and the cadence are still being settled, and an order panel over rules that are about to move would put a commitment on the page the research has not earned. Everything above stays visible and updates with the study, so you can follow the work as it lands.