Semiconductors 7
Calibrated launch value from the rulebook. This basket carries no order panel today.
Why this basket exists
What the construction is trying to capture, who it is built for, and how it is meant to be sized inside a wider allocation.
The full semiconductor stack from one basket. NVIDIA designs the GPUs, Broadcom and AMD build custom silicon, TSMC fabricates almost everything, ASML supplies the lithography machines that make fabrication possible, Arm licenses the underlying architecture, Qualcomm anchors edge compute. The thesis: AI inference and training capex remains a multi-year cycle, and every chip dollar passes through at least one of these companies.
- Equities family · Growth risk tier
- Rule-based, divisor-method NAV
No committee note is published for this basket yet. The text above is its catalogue description; the framing beside it is derived from the mandate and the risk tier.
7 holdings, drawn to scale
Each tile's area is its weight in the basket, so the picture and the table below it are the same data read two ways.
| Holding | Share | Weight | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01NVDAon | 25% | ||
| 02AVGOon | 20% | ||
| 03TSMon | 18% | ||
| 04AMDon | 12% | ||
| 05ASMLon | 10% | ||
| 06ARMon | 8% | ||
| 07QCOMon | 7% | ||
| Total | 100% |
Why each name earned its seat
Research notes per constituent: the case for the asset, the regime that suits it, and the risk the seat carries.
- NVDAon25%Core anchor
NVIDIA is the single largest contributor to risk-adjusted returns in the equity universe over the 2-year backtest window. Designs the GPUs that train every frontier model.
Performs in AI-capex-up regimes. Sensitive to hyperscaler demand-softening signals and to China-export-control news.
valuation extensionChina export-control exposure - AVGOon20%Core anchor
Broadcom is the second-largest US chip franchise by market cap and the dominant custom-ASIC vendor for hyperscaler workloads.
Performs in AI-capex cycles and hyperscaler ASIC ramps. Sensitive to VMware-integration noise and enterprise-software cycle softness.
VMware integration risk - TSMon18%Core anchor
TSMC fabricates virtually every leading-edge chip in the world, including NVIDIA's H100/B100 and Apple's M-class silicon.
Performs in AI-capex cycles. Sensitive to Taiwan-strait geopolitical news and advanced-node capacity bottlenecks.
geopolitical concentration - AMDon12%Growth
AMD is the closest credible alternative to NVIDIA in AI accelerators (MI300/MI400 series) and the only credible x86 server CPU challenger to Intel.
Performs when NVIDIA share-loss narratives gain traction. Sensitive to AI-customer-concentration and CPU-cycle dynamics.
AI customer concentration - ASMLon10%Infrastructure
ASML is the global monopolist in EUV lithography. Every leading-edge chip in the world is made by a machine ASML built.
Performs in capex-cycle ups and memory-NAND demand resumptions. Sensitive to China export-control headlines.
China export-control exposure
Show the remaining 2 holdings
- ARMon8%Infrastructure
Arm licenses the CPU and GPU architecture used in 99% of smartphones and most edge-AI silicon. Royalty model with high incremental margin.
Performs in mobile-cycle ups and AI-edge-device launches. Sensitive to smartphone-cycle softness.
smartphone-cycle exposure - QCOMon7%Infrastructure
Qualcomm designs the SoCs and modems that power most non-Apple smartphones and a growing share of automotive infotainment.
Performs in smartphone-cycle ups and on-device AI narrative phases. Sensitive to Apple-modem-insourcing news.
Apple modem-insourcing risk
What the numbers say
Simulated on historical constituent prices. A Sharpe is only published once the measured window clears 90 days, and drawdowns keep their sign.
Every figure above is simulated on historical constituent prices for a basket that has not traded. It describes how the rules would have behaved, not how they will behave. OSEM7 is part of a public preview.
Max expected loss over the horizon · 95% confidence · historical distribution. There is a 5% chance the actual loss is larger.
| Window | Return | Sharpe | vs BTC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full window | +347.4% | 2.30 | +1.06 |
| 1 year | +112.7% | 4.20 | +5.03 |
| 6 months | +42.6% | 3.72 | +4.39 |
| 3 months | +33.5% | Not graded | · |
Returns are simulated over each window. A Sharpe is published only once that window clears 90 days, so the shorter rows read Not graded and carry no comparison with bitcoin. Short windows flatter and punish at random; read the full window first and treat the rest as texture.
What could go wrong
Priced off this basket's own weights rather than off a generic disclaimer, so every figure below can be checked against the table above.
Higher beta than the broad market. Drawdowns of 40 to 60% during risk-off regimes are within historical range. Size accordingly.
- Top-name weightLow
NVDAon is the largest position at 25%. Capped by methodology but still drives index direction.
- Short price historyHigh
NVDAon, AVGOon, TSMon and 4 more have under a year of usable history. Backtest metrics carry wider error bars.
- Routing dependenceMedium
Routes through Dinari (stocks) and Backed Finance (ETFs). Settles on the EVM rail. KYC at the OLTA layer, not available in the US today.
| Scenario | Loss on net asset value |
|---|---|
| NVDAon loses half its valueLargest holding, 25.0% of the basket | −12.5%Mechanical |
| The three largest holdings fall 30%NVDAon, AVGOon, TSMon · 63.0% of the basket together | −18.9%Mechanical |
| The deepest simulated fall repeatsRecorded once in the window, 76 days to recover | −35.2%Recorded |
| A bad month, one in twenty95% historical value at risk over 30 days | −12.9%Measured |
The mechanical rows hold every other holding still, which is the optimistic case. This basket measured 0.27 correlation to bitcoin over its window, which is loose enough that the holdings can move apart. Even so, a shock rarely lands on one name alone. Read the figures as a floor on the damage, never a ceiling.
The research behind the construction
Tokenized equity execution is not open yet
Single stocks route through Dinari and ETF coverage through Backed Finance, settling on the EVM rail once identity checks clear. The execution surface for this family arrives with the next release. Composition, weights and the measured record above are current.