Liquidation Survivors 5
Calibrated launch value from the rulebook. This basket carries no order panel today.
Why this basket exists
What the construction is trying to capture, who it is built for, and how it is meant to be sized inside a wider allocation.
RETIRED 2026-05-25 · thesis falsified by 2y backtest (Sharpe -0.75). Original construction: five tokens that drew down 90%+ from peak (SOL, AVAX, NEAR, DOT, ATOM at equal weight) on the bet that survival predicts the next cycle. Only SOL actually recovered. Preserved for historical reference; see retirement note for the full reasoning.
- Curio family · Aggressive risk tier
- Rule-based, divisor-method NAV
No committee note is published for this basket yet, so the catalogue description above stands in until one is written.
5 holdings, drawn to scale
Each tile's area is its weight in the basket, so the picture and the table below it are the same data read two ways.
| Holding | Share | Weight | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01ATOM | 20% | ||
| 02AVAX | 20% | ||
| 03DOT | 20% | ||
| 04NEAR | 20% | ||
| 05SOL | 20% | ||
| Total | 100% |
Why each name earned its seat
Research notes per constituent: the case for the asset, the regime that suits it, and the risk the seat carries.
- ATOM20%Infrastructure
Cosmos is the original interchain layer and remains the canonical IBC asset. The ecosystem of sovereign chains keeps the hub relevant even as hub-token economics lag.
Outperforms in interchain or modular cycles. Lags when the ICS revenue thesis fails to translate into token accrual, which has been most of 2024 to 2026.
weak token accrual - AVAX20%Growth
Avalanche is the highest-quality EVM-compatible alt-L1 by liquidity and institutional integration. The subnet architecture appeals to enterprise pilots.
Performs in enterprise-adoption and alt-L1 rotation phases. Underperforms in flight-to-quality and meme-led cycles.
subnet fragmentation - DOT20%Infrastructure
Polkadot is the parachain coordination layer with one of the longest live interoperability stories in crypto. Its position has eroded against modular alternatives.
Lags in modular-blockchain narratives where Celestia and Cosmos take share. Performs in interoperability-narrative cycles and on JAM milestones.
share loss to modular peers - NEAR20%Growth
Near is the sharded L1 with the most coherent account-abstraction story in the majors. Chain Signatures target the largest UX bottleneck in crypto.
Performs in UX and AI-narrative phases. Lags in flight-to-quality regimes where alt-L1s are sold indiscriminately.
narrative dependence - SOL20%Growth
Solana is the highest-throughput smart-contract platform in production and the credible challenger to Ethereum at the application layer.
Highest beta of the L1 majors. Outperforms in retail-led risk-on phases. Drawdowns sharper than BTC in flight-to-quality regimes.
historical outagesvalidator concentration
What the numbers say
Simulated on historical constituent prices. A Sharpe is only published once the measured window clears 90 days, and drawdowns keep their sign.
Every figure above is simulated on historical constituent prices for a basket that has not traded. It describes how the rules would have behaved, not how they will behave. OREKT5 is part of a public preview.
Max expected loss over the horizon · 95% confidence · historical distribution. There is a 5% chance the actual loss is larger.
| Window | Return | Sharpe | vs BTC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full window | −58.1% | −0.56 | −0.99 |
| 1 year | −59.6% | −1.01 | −0.22 |
| 6 months | +1.8% | 0.08 | −1.39 |
| 3 months | −12.0% | −0.87 | −1.96 |
| 1 month | +22.0% | Not graded | · |
Returns are simulated over each window. A Sharpe is published only once that window clears 90 days, so the shorter rows read Not graded and carry no comparison with bitcoin. Short windows flatter and punish at random; read the full window first and treat the rest as texture.
What could go wrong
Priced off this basket's own weights rather than off a generic disclaimer, so every figure below can be checked against the table above.
Highly volatile. Expect 50% or deeper drawdowns. Position size proportional to conviction; this is a tactical sleeve, not a buy-and-hold position.
- Editorial sleeveHigh
Curio family. Lab-corner index: preview only, not sized for institutional mandates.
- Elevated volatilityMedium
Backtest annualised vol 77%. See the backtest panel above for the full risk numbers.
- Deep historical drawdownHigh
Max drawdown reached −90% in the backtest window. Size accordingly.
- Pre-live statusLow
Watchlist index. NAV is computed but the basket isn't yet open for live allocation.
| Scenario | Loss on net asset value |
|---|---|
| ATOM loses half its valueLargest holding, 20.0% of the basket | −10.0%Mechanical |
| The three largest holdings fall 30%ATOM, AVAX, DOT · 60.0% of the basket together | −18.0%Mechanical |
| The deepest simulated fall repeatsRecorded once in the window, 1727 days to recover | −89.6%Recorded |
| A bad month, one in twenty95% historical value at risk over 30 days | −33.0%Measured |
The mechanical rows hold every other holding still, which is the optimistic case. This basket measured 0.71 correlation to bitcoin over its window: the holdings often move together, though less tightly than a broad crypto basket. Read the figures as a floor on the damage, never a ceiling.
The research behind the construction
This strategy has been shelved
The 'tokens that drew down 90%+ then recovered' thesis was falsified by the basket's own backtest history (Sharpe -0.75, totalReturn -73%, maxDD -83% over 730d). SOL was the only constituent that actually recovered; AVAX, NEAR, DOT and ATOM kept bleeding through the test window. The survivor-bias label held, the price action did not.
Retired 2026-05-25