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LT6
OLST6 · Sector

Liquid Staking Infra 6

T2Under studyS −0.69
Reference net asset value
670.90usd

Calibrated launch value from the rulebook. This basket carries no order panel today.

Family
Sector
Risk profile
Moderate
Holdings
6
Weighting
MarketCapCapped35
Rebalance
Not published
Sharpe grade
−0.69
The thesis

Why this basket exists

What the construction is trying to capture, who it is built for, and how it is meant to be sized inside a wider allocation.

Six liquid staking infrastructure tokens. LDO dominates by TVL; ETHFI, RPL, SSV, ANKR and EIGEN cover the rest. Concentrated allocation to Ethereum staking demand, BTC-correlated by design. Designed for thematic conviction on the LST category rather than absolute outperformance. Diversification benefit is intra-sector. Concentration in LDO is deliberate, since liquid staking remains a winner-take-most market.

  • Sector family · Moderate risk tier
  • Rule-based, divisor-method NAV

No committee note is published for this basket yet. The text above is its catalogue description; the framing beside it is derived from the mandate and the risk tier.

How it is meant to be used
Built forGeneralist crypto allocators with a multi-quarter horizon.
Typical sizing20 to 40% of a crypto sleeve
Weighting ruleMarketCapCapped35
Risk tierModerate
Composition

6 holdings, drawn to scale

Each tile's area is its weight in the basket, so the picture and the table below it are the same data read two ways.

Weight by area
6 holdings
LDO · 30% of the basketLDO30%ETHFI · 21% of the basketETHFI21%RPL · 18% of the basketRPL18%SSV · 14% of the basketSSV14%ANKR · 9% of the basketANKR9%EIGEN · 8% of the basketEIGEN8%
Largest holding
LDO 30.0%
The single name that moves net asset value most.
Top three
69.0%
Share of the basket held by its three largest names.
Effective holdings
4.99
Equal weight equivalent of 6 named positions.
Published weights
largest first
Published weights for all 6 holdings, largest first.
HoldingShareWeight
01LDO30%
02ETHFI21%
03RPL18%
04SSV14%
05ANKR9%
06EIGEN8%
Total100%
Holdings

Why each name earned its seat

Research notes per constituent: the case for the asset, the regime that suits it, and the risk the seat carries.

  • LDO30%Yield

    Lido is the dominant liquid staking protocol on Ethereum. stETH is the most widely accepted DeFi collateral.

    Performs in restaking and Ethereum-staking-narrative phases. Sensitive to validator-concentration concerns.

    validator concentration concern
  • ETHFI21%Growth

    Research note pending for this holding. Its weight and its role in the mandate are published above.

  • RPL18%Growth

    Research note pending for this holding. Its weight and its role in the mandate are published above.

  • SSV14%Growth

    Research note pending for this holding. Its weight and its role in the mandate are published above.

  • ANKR9%Growth

    Research note pending for this holding. Its weight and its role in the mandate are published above.

  • EIGEN8%Growth

    Research note pending for this holding. Its weight and its role in the mandate are published above.

The record

What the numbers say

Simulated on historical constituent prices. A Sharpe is only published once the measured window clears 90 days, and drawdowns keep their sign.

Backtested record
602 day window
Sharpe grade
−0.69Negative
Measured over 602 days against a bitcoin reference of 0.33.
Total return
−77.2%
Across the full window, simulated.
Max drawdown
−88.5%
Deepest peak to trough. 492 days to recover.
Annualised volatility
86.4%
Standard deviation of daily returns, annualised.
Beta vs bitcoin
1.61
Correlation 0.70.
Effective holdings
4.99
Of 6 named. Equal weight equivalent, from the published weights.
Simulated rebalance
Quarterly
Backtest assumption, not a published cadence.
Jensen alpha
−78.2%
Excess over what beta to bitcoin alone explains.
R squared
0.49
Share of the basket's moves bitcoin explains.
Bitcoin reference · Sharpe 0.33 · max drawdown −76.6%
OCBE100 reference · Sharpe 0.34 · max drawdown −61.1%

Every figure above is simulated on historical constituent prices for a basket that has not traded. It describes how the rules would have behaved, not how they will behave. OLST6 is part of a public preview.

Loss tail
95% VaR · loss tailhistorical
1-week · 7d−20%
1-month · 30d−37%

Max expected loss over the horizon · 95% confidence · historical distribution. There is a 5% chance the actual loss is larger.

Across timeframes
vs bitcoin
Simulated return for this basket over five windows, with a Sharpe and a comparison with bitcoin wherever the window is long enough to publish one.
WindowReturnSharpevs BTC
Full window−77.2%−0.69−1.10
1 year−65.8%−0.82+0.01
6 months−42.9%−1.05−0.37
3 months−0.5%−0.04−3.45
1 month−7.0%Not graded·

Returns are simulated over each window. A Sharpe is published only once that window clears 90 days, so the shorter rows read Not graded and carry no comparison with bitcoin. Short windows flatter and punish at random; read the full window first and treat the rest as texture.

Risk

What could go wrong

Priced off this basket's own weights rather than off a generic disclaimer, so every figure below can be checked against the table above.

Drawdowns of 30 to 50% are within historical range during cycle bottoms, tracking the broader crypto market. Family-standard caps and rebalancing rules apply.

Structural flags
4 on this basket
  • Top-name weightLow

    LDO is the largest position at 30%. Capped by methodology but still drives index direction.

  • Elevated volatilityMedium

    Backtest annualised vol 86%. See the backtest panel above for the full risk numbers.

  • Deep historical drawdownHigh

    Max drawdown reached −88% in the backtest window. Size accordingly.

  • Pre-live statusLow

    Second Wave index. NAV is computed but the basket isn't yet open for live allocation.

If it goes wrong
effect on net asset value
4 downside scenarios for this basket, and the loss each one would put on net asset value.
ScenarioLoss on net asset value
LDO loses half its valueLargest holding, 30.0% of the basket−15.0%Mechanical
The three largest holdings fall 30%LDO, ETHFI, RPL · 69.0% of the basket together−20.7%Mechanical
The deepest simulated fall repeatsRecorded once in the window, 492 days to recover−88.5%Recorded
A bad month, one in twenty95% historical value at risk over 30 days−37.0%Measured

The mechanical rows hold every other holding still, which is the optimistic case. This basket measured 0.70 correlation to bitcoin over its window: the holdings often move together, though less tightly than a broad crypto basket. Read the figures as a floor on the damage, never a ceiling.

Further reading

The research behind the construction

Worth a second look later

OLST6 is under methodology review, so it carries no buy action today. The weights and the cadence are still being settled, and publishing an order panel over rules that are about to change would be the wrong kind of confidence. Everything above stays on the page while the work runs: the composition, the measured record and the risk flags all move with the research.