Lending Markets 6
Calibrated launch value from the rulebook. This basket carries no order panel today.
Why this basket exists
What the construction is trying to capture, who it is built for, and how it is meant to be sized inside a wider allocation.
Six on-chain credit and lending protocols. AAVE leads on TVL. The basket also includes SKY (formerly MakerDAO), COMP, MORPHO, EUL and PENDLE. The clearest cash-flow story in DeFi: each loan generates a real interest spread. Designed for thematic conviction on on-chain credit, BTC-correlated by design. Captures the lending narrative without single-name risk; diversification benefit is intra-sector.
- Sector family · Moderate risk tier
- Rule-based, divisor-method NAV
No committee note is published for this basket yet, so the catalogue description above stands in until one is written.
6 holdings, drawn to scale
Each tile's area is its weight in the basket, so the picture and the table below it are the same data read two ways.
| Holding | Share | Weight | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01AAVE | 30% | ||
| 02SKY | 20% | ||
| 03COMP | 15% | ||
| 04MORPHO | 14% | ||
| 05EUL | 12% | ||
| 06PENDLE | 9% | ||
| Total | 100% |
Why each name earned its seat
Research notes per constituent: the case for the asset, the regime that suits it, and the risk the seat carries.
- AAVE30%Yield
Aave is the largest lending protocol in DeFi by TVL and the canonical on-chain credit cash-flow asset.
Performs in DeFi-led cycles and high-utilization lending regimes. Underperforms when leverage demand collapses.
smart-contract exposure - SKY20%Yield
Sky (formerly MakerDAO) operates the USDS and DAI stablecoin franchises and routes meaningful collateral into RWA strategies.
Performs in RWA-narrative and high-rate regimes when RWA collateral earns wide spreads. Sensitive to DAI peg incidents and stablecoin regulation.
stablecoin regulationpeg event risk - COMP15%Growth
Research note pending for this holding. Its weight and its role in the mandate are published above.
- MORPHO14%Growth
Research note pending for this holding. Its weight and its role in the mandate are published above.
- EUL12%Growth
Research note pending for this holding. Its weight and its role in the mandate are published above.
- PENDLE9%Yield
Pendle is the leading yield-trading protocol in DeFi. Tokenizes future yield into principal and yield tokens so traders can express directional yield views.
Performs in restaking and high-yield regimes. Underperforms when underlying yields compress or restaking narratives cool.
yield-curve regime risk
What the numbers say
Simulated on historical constituent prices. A Sharpe is only published once the measured window clears 90 days, and drawdowns keep their sign.
Every figure above is simulated on historical constituent prices for a basket that has not traded. It describes how the rules would have behaved, not how they will behave. OLM6 is part of a public preview.
Max expected loss over the horizon · 95% confidence · historical distribution. There is a 5% chance the actual loss is larger.
| Window | Return | Sharpe | vs BTC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full window | −32.9% | −0.67 | +0.25 |
| 1 year | −32.9% | −0.67 | +0.25 |
| 6 months | +22.2% | 0.99 | −0.48 |
| 3 months | +22.4% | 2.40 | +1.31 |
| 1 month | +19.3% | Not graded | · |
Returns are simulated over each window. A Sharpe is published only once that window clears 90 days, so the shorter rows read Not graded and carry no comparison with bitcoin. Short windows flatter and punish at random; read the full window first and treat the rest as texture.
What could go wrong
Priced off this basket's own weights rather than off a generic disclaimer, so every figure below can be checked against the table above.
Drawdowns of 30 to 50% are within historical range during cycle bottoms, tracking the broader crypto market. Family-standard caps and rebalancing rules apply.
- Top-name weightLow
AAVE is the largest position at 30%. Capped by methodology but still drives index direction.
- Short price historyMedium
SKY, PENDLE have under a year of usable history. Backtest metrics carry wider error bars.
- Deep historical drawdownMedium
Max drawdown reached −57% in the backtest window. Size accordingly.
- Pre-live statusLow
Watchlist index. NAV is computed but the basket isn't yet open for live allocation.
| Scenario | Loss on net asset value |
|---|---|
| AAVE loses half its valueLargest holding, 30.0% of the basket | −15.0%Mechanical |
| The three largest holdings fall 30%AAVE, SKY, COMP · 65.0% of the basket together | −19.5%Mechanical |
| The deepest simulated fall repeatsRecorded once in the window, 236 days to recover | −56.8%Recorded |
| A bad month, one in twenty95% historical value at risk over 30 days | −25.4%Measured |
The mechanical rows hold every other holding still, which is the optimistic case. This basket measured 0.80 correlation to bitcoin over its window, so its holdings tend to fall together rather than one at a time. Read the figures as a floor on the damage, never a ceiling.
The research behind the construction
Worth a second look later
OLM6 is under methodology review, so it carries no buy action today. The weights and the cadence are still being settled, and an order panel over rules that are about to move would put a commitment on the page the research has not earned. Everything above stays visible and updates with the study, so you can follow the work as it lands.