Industrials & Defense 4
Calibrated launch value from the rulebook. This basket carries no order panel today.
Why this basket exists
What the construction is trying to capture, who it is built for, and how it is meant to be sized inside a wider allocation.
Geopolitical exposure as a defined thesis. Lockheed Martin for the multi-decade defense spending cycle. Vertiv for the data-center power and cooling infrastructure every hyperscaler is racing to build. MP Materials for the only US-domiciled rare-earth supply chain. Intel for the US semiconductor reshoring trade via CHIPS Act funding. All four are policy beneficiaries that trade small to mid-cap by US standards.
- Equities family · Moderate risk tier
- Rule-based, divisor-method NAV
No committee note is published for this basket yet, so the catalogue description above stands in until one is written.
4 holdings, drawn to scale
Each tile's area is its weight in the basket, so the picture and the table below it are the same data read two ways.
| Holding | Share | Weight | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01LMTon | 35% | ||
| 02VRTon | 28% | ||
| 03MPon | 22% | ||
| 04INTCon | 15% | ||
| Total | 100% |
Why each name earned its seat
Research notes per constituent: the case for the asset, the regime that suits it, and the risk the seat carries.
- LMTon35%Hedge
Lockheed Martin is the largest US defense contractor. Multi-decade procurement cycle and political bipartisanship around defense spending give cash flow unusual visibility.
Performs in geopolitical-tension regimes. Lower correlation to crypto and tech beta. Defensive in flight-to-quality phases.
budget-cycle exposure - VRTon28%Growth
Research note pending for this holding. Its weight and its role in the mandate are published above.
- MPon22%Growth
Research note pending for this holding. Its weight and its role in the mandate are published above.
- INTCon15%Tactical
Intel is the legacy US semiconductor manufacturer and the primary beneficiary of US-reshoring policy via the CHIPS Act.
Performs in CHIPS-Act and US-reshoring phases. Underperforms when foundry-execution disappointments dominate.
restructuring execution risk
What the numbers say
Simulated on historical constituent prices. A Sharpe is only published once the measured window clears 90 days, and drawdowns keep their sign.
Every figure above is simulated on historical constituent prices for a basket that has not traded. It describes how the rules would have behaved, not how they will behave. OINDDEF4 is part of a public preview.
Max expected loss over the horizon · 95% confidence · historical distribution. There is a 5% chance the actual loss is larger.
| Window | Return | Sharpe | vs BTC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full window | +350.9% | 1.29 | +0.85 |
| 1 year | +71.9% | 2.23 | +3.01 |
| 6 months | +17.8% | 1.13 | −0.40 |
| 3 months | −5.8% | −0.64 | −1.84 |
| 1 month | +19.6% | Not graded | · |
Returns are simulated over each window. A Sharpe is published only once that window clears 90 days, so the shorter rows read Not graded and carry no comparison with bitcoin. Short windows flatter and punish at random; read the full window first and treat the rest as texture.
What could go wrong
Priced off this basket's own weights rather than off a generic disclaimer, so every figure below can be checked against the table above.
Drawdowns of 30 to 50% are within historical range during cycle bottoms, tracking the broader crypto market. Family-standard caps and rebalancing rules apply.
- Single-name concentrationMedium
LMTon carries 35% of the basket. A drawdown in this single name materially moves NAV.
- Short price historyHigh
LMTon, VRTon, MPon and 1 more have under a year of usable history. Backtest metrics carry wider error bars.
- Routing dependenceMedium
Routes through Dinari (stocks) and Backed Finance (ETFs). Settles on the EVM rail. KYC at the OLTA layer, not available in the US today.
| Scenario | Loss on net asset value |
|---|---|
| LMTon loses half its valueLargest holding, 35.0% of the basket | −17.5%Mechanical |
| The three largest holdings fall 30%LMTon, VRTon, MPon · 85.0% of the basket together | −25.5%Mechanical |
| The deepest simulated fall repeatsRecorded once in the window, 261 days to recover | −31.7%Recorded |
| A bad month, one in twenty95% historical value at risk over 30 days | −10.9%Measured |
The mechanical rows hold every other holding still, which is the optimistic case. This basket measured 0.28 correlation to bitcoin over its window, which is loose enough that the holdings can move apart. Even so, a shock rarely lands on one name alone. Read the figures as a floor on the damage, never a ceiling.
The research behind the construction
Tokenized equity execution is not open yet
Single stocks route through Dinari and ETF coverage through Backed Finance, settling on the EVM rail once identity checks clear. The execution surface for this family arrives with the next release. Composition, weights and the measured record above are current.