Arbitrum Ecosystem 6
Calibrated launch value from the rulebook. This basket carries no order panel today.
Why this basket exists
What the construction is trying to capture, who it is built for, and how it is meant to be sized inside a wider allocation.
Seven quality DeFi protocols with significant Arbitrum integration, reframed in the 2026-05 refactor from 'Arbitrum-native tokens' to 'quality DeFi on Arbitrum'. AAVE and PENDLE anchor the basket as DeFi blue chips with real fee revenue. ETHFI brings restaking exposure with active Arbitrum deployments. MORPHO adds a top-three lending TVL. ARB itself is capped at 12% to remain a reference exposure to the L2 narrative rather than dominating the construction. GMX caps at 8% after losing perp share to Hyperliquid. GNS retains 8% on real perp volume. MAGIC exits the basket.
- Ecosystem family · Growth risk tier
- Rule-based, divisor-method NAV
No committee note is published for this basket yet, so the catalogue description above stands in until one is written.
7 holdings, drawn to scale
Each tile's area is its weight in the basket, so the picture and the table below it are the same data read two ways.
| Holding | Share | Weight | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01AAVE | 22% | ||
| 02PENDLE | 22% | ||
| 03ETHFI | 14% | ||
| 04MORPHO | 14% | ||
| 05ARB | 12% | ||
| 06GMX | 8% | ||
| 07GNS | 8% | ||
| Total | 100% |
Why each name earned its seat
Research notes per constituent: the case for the asset, the regime that suits it, and the risk the seat carries.
- AAVE22%Yield
Aave is the largest lending protocol in DeFi by TVL and the canonical on-chain credit cash-flow asset.
Performs in DeFi-led cycles and high-utilization lending regimes. Underperforms when leverage demand collapses.
smart-contract exposure - PENDLE22%Yield
Pendle is the leading yield-trading protocol in DeFi. Tokenizes future yield into principal and yield tokens so traders can express directional yield views.
Performs in restaking and high-yield regimes. Underperforms when underlying yields compress or restaking narratives cool.
yield-curve regime risk - ETHFI14%Growth
Research note pending for this holding. Its weight and its role in the mandate are published above.
- MORPHO14%Growth
Research note pending for this holding. Its weight and its role in the mandate are published above.
- ARB12%Growth
Research note pending for this holding. Its weight and its role in the mandate are published above.
Show the remaining 2 holdings
- GMX8%Growth
Research note pending for this holding. Its weight and its role in the mandate are published above.
- GNS8%Growth
Research note pending for this holding. Its weight and its role in the mandate are published above.
What the numbers say
Simulated on historical constituent prices. A Sharpe is only published once the measured window clears 90 days, and drawdowns keep their sign.
Every figure above is simulated on historical constituent prices for a basket that has not traded. It describes how the rules would have behaved, not how they will behave. OARB6 is part of a public preview.
Max expected loss over the horizon · 95% confidence · historical distribution. There is a 5% chance the actual loss is larger.
| Window | Return | Sharpe | vs BTC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full window | −53.8% | −0.93 | +0.07 |
| 1 year | −53.8% | −0.93 | +0.07 |
| 6 months | +19.0% | 0.84 | −0.63 |
| 3 months | +27.9% | 3.41 | +2.32 |
| 1 month | +24.6% | Not graded | · |
Returns are simulated over each window. A Sharpe is published only once that window clears 90 days, so the shorter rows read Not graded and carry no comparison with bitcoin. Short windows flatter and punish at random; read the full window first and treat the rest as texture.
What could go wrong
Priced off this basket's own weights rather than off a generic disclaimer, so every figure below can be checked against the table above.
Higher beta than the broad market. Drawdowns of 40 to 60% during risk-off regimes are within historical range. Size accordingly.
- Top-name weightLow
AAVE is the largest position at 22%. Capped by methodology but still drives index direction.
- Short price historyMedium
PENDLE have under a year of usable history. Backtest metrics carry wider error bars.
- Deep historical drawdownHigh
Max drawdown reached −71% in the backtest window. Size accordingly.
- Pre-live statusLow
Watchlist index. NAV is computed but the basket isn't yet open for live allocation.
| Scenario | Loss on net asset value |
|---|---|
| AAVE loses half its valueLargest holding, 22.0% of the basket | −11.0%Mechanical |
| The three largest holdings fall 30%AAVE, PENDLE, ETHFI · 58.0% of the basket together | −17.4%Mechanical |
| The deepest simulated fall repeatsRecorded once in the window, 243 days to recover | −71.2%Recorded |
| A bad month, one in twenty95% historical value at risk over 30 days | −31.6%Measured |
The mechanical rows hold every other holding still, which is the optimistic case. This basket measured 0.79 correlation to bitcoin over its window, so its holdings tend to fall together rather than one at a time. Read the figures as a floor on the damage, never a ceiling.
The research behind the construction
Worth a second look later
OARB6 is under methodology review, so it carries no buy action today. The weights and the cadence are still being settled, and an order panel over rules that are about to move would put a commitment on the page the research has not earned. Everything above stays visible and updates with the study, so you can follow the work as it lands.