AI Midcap 8
Calibrated launch value from the rulebook. This basket carries no order panel today.
Why this basket exists
What the construction is trying to capture, who it is built for, and how it is meant to be sized inside a wider allocation.
AI Midcap 8 is targeted exposure to crypto AI infrastructure: compute, data, oracle layers and agent protocols. The thesis is that AI workloads onchain (verifiable compute, decentralized inference) become a real category, and the leading tokens in that race compound.
- Concentrated, thesis-driven, not a market index
- Sector-purity gating prevents off-thesis names from sneaking in
Written by the OLTA investment committee for this basket.
7 holdings, drawn to scale
Each tile's area is its weight in the basket, so the picture and the table below it are the same data read two ways.
| Holding | Share | Weight | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01TAO | 26% | ||
| 02RENDER | 22% | ||
| 03FET | 18% | ||
| 04IO | 14% | ||
| 05AR | 8% | ||
| 06AKT | 6% | ||
| 07GRT | 6% | ||
| Total | 100% |
Why each name earned its seat
Research notes per constituent: the case for the asset, the regime that suits it, and the risk the seat carries.
- TAO26%Growth
Research note pending for this holding. Its weight and its role in the mandate are published above.
- RENDER22%Growth
Research note pending for this holding. Its weight and its role in the mandate are published above.
- FET18%Growth
Research note pending for this holding. Its weight and its role in the mandate are published above.
- IO14%Growth
Research note pending for this holding. Its weight and its role in the mandate are published above.
- AR8%Growth
Research note pending for this holding. Its weight and its role in the mandate are published above.
Show the remaining 2 holdings
- AKT6%Growth
Research note pending for this holding. Its weight and its role in the mandate are published above.
- GRT6%Growth
Research note pending for this holding. Its weight and its role in the mandate are published above.
What the numbers say
Simulated on historical constituent prices. A Sharpe is only published once the measured window clears 90 days, and drawdowns keep their sign.
Every figure above is simulated on historical constituent prices for a basket that has not traded. It describes how the rules would have behaved, not how they will behave. OAIM8 is part of a public preview.
Max expected loss over the horizon · 95% confidence · historical distribution. There is a 5% chance the actual loss is larger.
| Window | Return | Sharpe | vs BTC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full window | −67.1% | −0.56 | −0.99 |
| 1 year | −56.4% | −0.80 | −0.01 |
| 6 months | +27.7% | 1.14 | −0.33 |
| 3 months | −23.6% | −1.21 | −2.31 |
| 1 month | +16.9% | Not graded | · |
Returns are simulated over each window. A Sharpe is published only once that window clears 90 days, so the shorter rows read Not graded and carry no comparison with bitcoin. Short windows flatter and punish at random; read the full window first and treat the rest as texture.
What could go wrong
Priced off this basket's own weights rather than off a generic disclaimer, so every figure below can be checked against the table above.
Narrative-driven sector. High beta to AI news cycles. Prone to 50%+ drawdowns when the narrative cools.
- Top-name weightLow
TAO is the largest position at 26%. Capped by methodology but still drives index direction.
- Short price historyMedium
TAO, FET have under a year of usable history. Backtest metrics carry wider error bars.
- Elevated volatilityMedium
Backtest annualised vol 77%. See the backtest panel above for the full risk numbers.
- Deep historical drawdownHigh
Max drawdown reached −89% in the backtest window. Size accordingly.
- Pre-live statusLow
Watchlist index. NAV is computed but the basket isn't yet open for live allocation.
| Scenario | Loss on net asset value |
|---|---|
| TAO loses half its valueLargest holding, 26.0% of the basket | −13.0%Mechanical |
| The three largest holdings fall 30%TAO, RENDER, FET · 66.0% of the basket together | −19.8%Mechanical |
| The deepest simulated fall repeatsRecorded once in the window, 432 days to recover | −89.0%Recorded |
| A bad month, one in twenty95% historical value at risk over 30 days | −36.4%Measured |
The mechanical rows hold every other holding still, which is the optimistic case. This basket measured 0.75 correlation to bitcoin over its window: the holdings often move together, though less tightly than a broad crypto basket. Read the figures as a floor on the damage, never a ceiling.
The research behind the construction
Worth a second look later
OAIM8 is under methodology review, so it carries no buy action today. The weights and the cadence are still being settled, and an order panel over rules that are about to move would put a commitment on the page the research has not earned. Everything above stays visible and updates with the study, so you can follow the work as it lands.